Tell a fact from a claim, and generate real options
Think Clearly
Most bad decisions at work are not made by careless people. They are made by careful people who could not see where their evidence stopped and their conclusions started. This module builds that boundary: pulling a claim apart into what is observed and what is assumed, reading a statistic without being played by it, catching the errors your own thinking makes reliably, producing real options instead of defending your first idea, and deciding anyway when the information runs out.
Easier if you have done: Find the Answer
Lessons
- 0118 min
Fact, claim, inference, opinion
Separate what you actually know from what you concluded, so you stop presenting guesses as findings.
You keep: Can look at a sentence and say which part is observed, which part is inferred, and which part is preference.
- 0220 min
The ways numbers mislead
Spot the eight standard tricks that make a true number tell a false story.
You keep: Can look at a statistic and ask the two or three questions that reveal whether it means anything.
- 0318 min
Your own biases
Catch the five thinking errors you personally make, using countermeasures that work even when you cannot feel the bias happening.
You keep: Can name what they expect to find before looking, and notice when they found exactly that.
- 0420 min
Generating options worth choosing
Produce twenty real options for any problem using mechanical prompts, instead of waiting to feel creative.
You keep: Can generate a wide set of genuine options on demand, rather than defending the first idea they had.
- 0520 min
Deciding when you cannot be sure
Match the effort you spend on a decision to how hard it is to undo, and decide anyway when the information runs out.
You keep: Can tell a reversible decision from an irreversible one and spend effort accordingly, instead of agonising over everything equally.